08 February 2010

Greece. Spain. Portugal. The U.S.?

"In the last month, the cost of insuring Greece’s sovereign debt against default has doubled. Spain and Portugal are headed the same way. When you binge-spend at the Greek level in a democratic state, there aren’t many easy roads back. The government has introduced an austerity package to rein in spending. In response, Greek tax collectors have walked off the job."
(The emphasis is mine.)

I wish I could predict what is going to happen to us economically.
I cannot. I bought a large amount of Silver, knowing it would be a good hedge against the collapse of the dollar. I haven't done an update on precious metals prices because, quite honestly, they are not doing what I expected and I don't want to look back and feel responsible for leading you down a failed path. (My silver holdings are now worth less than I paid for them six months ago, and right now I have some
serious egg on my face.)

Do I still think we are headed for a huge fall?
And I still believe with all my heart that "Preparing for the worst while hoping for the best" is just good insurance.

The quote at the beginning of this post is from a Mark Steyn article where he points out that instead of applying the brakes, our present administration appears to be putting "pedal to the metal".

I guess they intend for us to gp out in a blaze of glory, like Thelma and Louise!


ddf said...

CHAOS, by Gleick. The book essentially states that sometimes there are just too many variables to solve an equation. There is just so much going on right now that influence all of the world's economies it is impossible to predict what will happen, so you may feel that you have egg on your face now, but tomorrow you may look like a wizard.

CrisisMaven said...

In and of itself a Greek bankruptcy or bond default should -in theory- not affect the Euro as such very much, Greece being maybe 3% of the total. However, just as a Californian bankruptcy (probably inevitable, large US cities at least are already contemplating insolvency, ten idividual states may well follow) would reflect badly on the "state of the Union" as a whole so would the default of on EU country, coupled with the rising interest rates and thus further destabilisation of the remaining over-leveraged member states, make investors wonder when sovereign default across the board is likely. Thus they wouldn't commit themseves to bonds of longer maturity and that's the beginning of the end.

Clint said...

At least we have China backing us up, right?!?
We should all sleep well at night with that thought in the back our head.
I am actually waiting for silver to go down before I buy into it...I've been tracking it the last few weeks and I think it will start an ascension.