23 December 2009

The (Ugly) Forecast

Seven nights last shift without a flight, mostly due to weather...
Four flightless nights so far this shift, with lower-than-guidelines weather being the culprit.
This is the forecast for tonight:
KXXX 231722Z 2318/2418 15012KT P6SM OVC017
TEMPO 2318/2321 5SM -SHRA BR BKN009
FM232100 14014G22KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC015
FM240300 12015G25KT 2SM SHRA BR OVC008
FM241200 13022G32KT 2SM SHRA BR OVC010

The important bits? The first line indicates the day guy will have
marginally flyable weather, but there is a temporary chance for a
visibility of 5 statute miles under a fairly solid (Broken) cloud deck
at 900 feet AGL. As I start my shift the weather will once again be
right at our (flyable) limits with 5 miles visibility and an overcast
ceiling at 1500 feet AGL, but in two hours that changes to 2 miles
visibility with overcast clouds at 800 feet AGL...
(And the wind... 14 gusting to 22 knots,
15 gusting to 23, 22 knots gusting to 32? Wow.)

Once again I'll be saying NO! every time the telephone rings.


Bloviating Zeppelin said...

Unfamiliar with your cockpit. Can you only fly VFR?


cary said...

Ah, but think about how nice and comfy and warm you will be in your ready room.

Clint said...

that looks like fun flying weather...
just curious what rules you operate under, Part 91? What are your company mins?
Because, we would be flying in that...grant it, we're fixed wing, so there is a huge difference.

Greybeard said...

We are a Part 135 operation, Clint, and we operate VFR only.
Pilots are all instrument-rated, and the aircraft all have the equipment necessary to do an instrument approach, should we find ourselves inadvertently under Instrument meteorological conditions.
We can fly locally with 800 foot ceilings and 2 miles vis. in daytime, 1000/3 at night, so the day pilot could have flown locally had he gotten a call.
Our weather policy has changed in the last few months, trying to impact safety.
Looking at that forecast, I knew I was probably gonna be outta the box once darkness fell.